Hey, l feel l have missed my calling. My true vocation should have been statistician.
l due love stats, but my cruel overbearing father made me be an artist;
“Benny” he said, “You can play with your numbers after you have completed your drawing lessons.’
Mother was the counter point. She was often want to say; “If all the great art in the world was put on a ship and sent out into the middle of the ocean and it sank on Monday morning,
by Tuesday afternoon the world would be back to ‘business as usual.’ “
So please allow me to indulge in one of my favourite hobbies.
Total population 26 million -100 years ago 4 m
Urban population 90% -100ya 30%
Birth rate today 1.8 babies per woman – 100 years ago – 3.2
55% of our population increase since 2000 is due to immigration
30% of Australians are born overseas
Annual death rate of around 150 thousand pa, is half the birth rate,
So, even though the birth rate is around replacement; 2 per woman,
the population is increasing, and would continue to increase,
even without immigration, for 20 – 30 years.
LIFE EXPECTANCY 2021
Male babies born today can expect to live for 80 years (5th highest in world)
– Females 85 ( 8th higest)
If you are 65 year old male today your life expectancy is 85 – world best!
– Female 88
(Shows we are the best place in the world to grow old.)
If you are an 85 year old man your life expectancy is now an impressive 91
An 80 year old woman 92
100 years ago –
At birth a male could expect to live to the ripe old age of 55
– a female 61
If l was already 65 l could expect to live to 76
( so l could expect to live another 10 years, instead of 25. Actually l would be dead!)
Life expectancy Male Born 1956
At birth 67
Another way of looking at it is if l was born in 1956, which l was;
Life expectancy at birth 67 (50% chance of dying before 67, or after, but probably somewhere near 67)
Life expectancy at 67 85 at birth you have a 25% chance of reaching 85, & so on…
Life expectancy at 85 91 -12.5% chance at birth
Life expectancy at 91 95 -6.25%
Life expectancy at 95 98 -3.12%
Life expectancy at 98 101 -1.6% chance at birth of reaching 101
Nowadays of course, life expectancy changes very little till around 45, when all those pesky heart attacks and cancers start to kick in and reduce the competition.
Another way of looking at it;
When we are born we all have a 50/50 chance of living our expected life span.
For me, that was 67 years at birth.
The penny is thrown aloft.
Half of us get heads and get to play another round,
for the other half, the game is over.
We are now 67 years old. We are getting into dangerously hypothetical territory here,
but medical advances, improvements in health and the fact that we are still alive
has increased our life expectancy a whopping 18 years.
When born our chance of reaching 85 was considered slim indeed, but miraculously,
we now have an even chance of reaching 85. Whoopie!
The next round starts at 85.
All those who were dragging down our life expectancy have been eliminated from the game.
For all those who mourn those unfortunate souls departing the game of life, l am sorry for your loss.
The pennies are thrown aloft once more.
Half of us reach the ripe old age of 91.
We are rewarded for our efforts by an increase in our life expectancy to 95,
….and so it goes.
But the law of mortality decrees that our life expectancy will increase less and less each time,
until it is zero.
That is when we reach an age that no one is expected to live beyond, because nobody has.
For a man that is 116, for a woman 122.
But don’t give up, that doesn’t mean you cannot live beyond that age, so have a go!
But be warned, your chances are 7 billion to one.
Another way of looking at it for those of us who love statistics;
Every year l survived since birth, my life expectancy increased by 4 months,
So l was not one year closer to death, but only 8 months closer to death.
So l had actually only aged 8 months, not one year.
So instead of saying how old we are since birth,
it is far more accurate to calculate how young we are till death.
So today my age would be 25 years young, rather than 65 years old. That sounds much better.
Of course everyone who has lived for the same number of years will not live to the same age,
but it is possible to calculate with a fair degree of accuracy just how many years each of us has left.
That is our real age. How many years young we are.
So my age: 25 years young, would probably be adjusted downwards
after my manifold afflictions were taken into due consideration, so we won’t go there.
Better to be surprised, like:
“Surprise, you’re 99.” or “Surprise, you’re dead!”
Ben Boyang 2021